What the 2026 Election Means for Incline Village Real Estate

By Cole Mizak, Compass | #1 real estate agent in Incline Village by transaction count, 2026
Published November 4, 2026

Election results here were current on November 4, 2026. They are unofficial, and some races and measures were still being counted. Washoe County’s canvass is scheduled for November 13. This is general market commentary, not tax, legal or financial advice.

TL;DR: The November 3 election did not change the two biggest forces in the Incline Village market. Nevada’s constitution still bans a personal income tax, and mortgage rates still follow the bond market. Aaron Ford defeated Gov. Joe Lombardo, and Democrats won control of Congress. The changes to watch will come in the 2027 Nevada Legislature: limits on corporate investors, new landlord rules and possible property tax reform. In California, the billionaire tax appeared headed for defeat while a measure making high income tax rates permanent appeared headed for passage, so the tax gap between the two states remains. For buyers and sellers, today’s market matters more: 114 Incline Village homes for sale on October 14, about 4.5 months of supply and a $2.51 million single-family median.

As an Incline Village real estate agent, I’ve been asked the same question all week: what does this election mean for my home? This isn’t about who should have won. It’s about what changes for people buying or selling here, and what doesn’t.

What happened on November 3?

• Governor: Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) defeated Gov. Joe Lombardo (R). Ford takes office in January.
• Statewide offices: Democrats won all six, for the first time since 1962.
• Nevada Legislature: Democrats reached a two-thirds supermajority in the Assembly and were one seat short in the state Senate, with some races still uncalled.
• Congress: Democrats won control of the House and Senate, according to network calls. President Trump remains in office through January 2029.
• Northern Nevada’s U.S. House seat: Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) defeated David Flippo (R) in the 2nd District, which includes Incline Village. A Democrat had never won the seat.
• IVGID board: Ryan “RB” Brooks and incumbent Dave Noble led for the two open trustee seats in unofficial results.
• Nevada ballot questions: Question 6 (abortion rights) and Question 7 (voter ID) passed. Neither changes property law.
• California: Prop. 40, the billionaire tax, was trailing. Prop. 3, on high-income tax rates, was leading.

Does the election change Nevada’s no-income-tax status?

No. Article 10 of the Nevada Constitution prohibits a tax on wages or personal income, and neither a governor nor the Legislature can remove it alone.

Changing it would take either passage in two consecutive legislative sessions plus a public vote, or voter approval at two general elections. With sessions in 2027 and 2029 and general elections in 2028 and 2030, a change could not realistically arrive before 2030. Ford’s team also said in August that he “will not raise taxes period,” according to The Nevada Independent.

Other taxes work differently. Bills that create or raise state revenue need a two-thirds vote in each house, or they must go to voters. That makes the state Senate count worth watching. Democrats were one seat short of two-thirds, and District 16, which includes Incline Village, was one of two races The Nevada Independent called still in play on Wednesday. Its results page showed Republican Lisa Krasner ahead of Democrat Chrystal Roll, 53% to 47%.

Will property taxes change for Incline Village homes?

Not right away, but this is the issue to watch in 2027. Nevada caps annual tax bill increases at 3% for owner-occupied homes and 8% for other properties, and a sale does not reset a home’s taxable value.

In 2025, a proposed constitutional amendment called AJR1 would have let voters reset taxable value when a home sells. It passed the Assembly 26-16, then died in the Senate. Ford says he opposes resetting property tax values. Even so, reform proposals are expected back in 2027. A new amendment would need to pass in two sessions and then go to voters, so a reset could not realistically arrive before 2030.

For a full breakdown of today’s carrying costs, see what it really costs to own a home in Incline Village.

What does Aaron Ford’s housing plan mean for Incline Village?

Mostly indirect effects. His plan focuses on corporate landlords, renters and new supply, especially in the Las Vegas Valley. His housing page makes no specific promises about second homes or short-term rentals. These are campaign proposals, and most would need legislation:

• Corporate investor limits and a landlord registry: The plan would cap how many single-family homes corporate investors can buy each year. If you hold an Incline Village home in an LLC, watch how any 2027 bill defines “corporate investor.”
• Tenant first chance to buy: The plan would give tenants the first chance to buy a home before it is sold. Depending on the details, that could add a step for owners selling a tenant-occupied home.
• Landlord rules: Security deposits would be capped at one month’s rent, down from three, and rent-setting software would be banned.
• Down payment help: Refundable tax credits would go to first-time buyers, teachers, first responders, military families and veterans. With a $950,000 condo median, the effect here may be limited.
• Land for housing: The largest proposals involve vacant land in the Las Vegas Valley and federal land sales, with little direct effect at Tahoe.

What do the local results mean for Incline Village?

IVGID: Two of the five trustee seats were on the ballot. In unofficial Washoe County results, Ryan “RB” Brooks led with 2,907 votes, incumbent Dave Noble followed with 2,802 and Harry Swenson had 1,422. If that holds, Noble returns and Brooks joins the board in the seat held by Trustee Ray Tulloch, who did not run. The board matters to homeowners because it oversees fees, water and sewer service, and aging recreation facilities. Fees run about $1,530 a year for most parcels in 2026-27. To see what a specific property includes, read my guide to IVGID beach access and the 1968 deed rule.

Short-term rentals: Incline Village’s county commission seat was not on the ballot. Commissioner Alexis Hill’s term runs through 2028, and nothing in this election changed Washoe County’s rules. Three other commission seats were on the ballot, though, and Districts 2 and 5 will have new commissioners. The full commission sets short-term rental rules, so the new board is worth watching. See my Lake Tahoe short-term rental guide for the current requirements.

Tahoe planning: Nevada’s seats on the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency board include a governor’s seat, the Secretary of State and the state conservation department. A new governor can shape those seats over time, so any shift should come slowly.

Will California’s vote send more buyers to Incline Village?

The reason high earners look at Nevada hasn’t changed. Prop. 40, a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of California’s billionaires, appeared headed for defeat, though its backers have vowed to try again in 2028. Prop. 42, which would bar wealth taxes, was leading. Prop. 3, which makes California’s higher income tax rates on high earners permanent, was on track to pass.

California’s top income tax rate is 13.3%. Nevada’s is zero. One caution: buying a home here does not make you a Nevada resident by itself. What a Nevada move can and can’t do depends on your facts, so bring in a tax professional early.

What does a Democratic Congress mean for mortgage rates and federal taxes?

Don’t expect an election to set your mortgage rate. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average was 7.24% on October 29, down from 7.40% earlier in the month and up from 6.17% a year ago. Rates tend to follow long-term Treasury yields, and the 10-year was about 4.9% on Election Day. U.S. News also reported that markets were pricing in a quarter-point Fed rate hike in December.

Here’s what that gap means. On a $950,000 condo with 20% down, principal and interest run about $5,180 a month at 7.24%, compared with about $4,640 at 6.17%. That’s roughly $540 more each month.

With Democrats in Congress and President Trump in the White House, major federal tax changes will likely require a deal. The $250,000 and $500,000 home-sale capital gains exclusions remain in place. Bills to raise or remove those limits have been introduced, but none has become law.

Did the last election slow the Incline Village market?

Not in the numbers. Here’s what closed sales in the Incline Village REALTORS® MLS show around the November 5, 2024 election:

• 12 months before: 254 home and condo sales
• 12 months after: 279 sales, up 10%
• 90 days after: 53 sales, compared with 51 in the same window a year earlier
• Dollar volume: essentially flat, at about $612 million in both 12-month periods
• Single-family median: down about 7%, from $2.30 million to $2.14 million

One election is a small sample, so treat this as a reality check and not a rule. The single-family median has since climbed to $2.51 million in 2026.

Where does the Incline Village market stand now?

From January 1 to October 14, 2026, compared with the same period of 2025:

• Single-family median: $2,510,000, up 17%
• Condo and townhome median: $950,000, up 4%
• Sales: 247, up from 216
• Incline Village homes for sale on October 14: 114 (65 homes, 49 condos and townhomes), about 4.5 months of supply
• Single-family pace: a median of 63 days on market, selling at 93.9% of original asking price on average

See the Incline Village market and community guide for prices by neighborhood.

What should Incline Village buyers do now?

1. Set your timing around your own plans. No new state law can come from the 2027 session before it opens on February 1.
2. Use the data when you negotiate. Homes have sold at 93.9% of original asking price on average, but that varies widely by home and neighborhood.
3. Compare payment scenarios with your lender. Rates can move either way, so know what your budget can absorb.
4. Confirm the details for each property. Check beach access, IVGID fees, HOA rules and short-term rental limits.
5. Talk to a CPA before you buy if you’re leaving California. Residency planning works best before the move.

Browse current Incline Village homes for sale, or ask me about off-market opportunities.

What should Incline Village sellers do now?

1. Price to the current market. At 4.5 months of supply, the market overall still leans toward sellers, but buyers can see the same data you can.
2. Review your capital gains early. If you’ve owned for decades, ask your CPA about any gain above the exclusion limits. Don’t plan around bills that haven’t passed.
3. Follow the 2027 session if you own a rental or hold title in an LLC. Those owners are the most likely to feel new housing rules.
4. Start with a current valuation. A pricing opinion based on recent sales beats a forecast about Washoe, Carson City or Washington. Request your home value here.

What should you watch next?

• Mid-November: Final results. Washoe’s canvass is scheduled for November 13.
• December: The next Federal Reserve meeting.
• January 3, 2027: The new Congress convenes.
• January 4, 2027: Ford takes office.
• February 1, 2027: The Nevada Legislature convenes.
• 2028: Prop. 40’s backers say they’ll return to the California ballot.

Frequently asked questions

Will the election change Incline Village home prices?
No one can promise that either way. No November 3 result directly changes prices here. Supply, mortgage rates and the financial markets that affect buyers are likely to matter more.

Will Nevada add a state income tax under Aaron Ford?
Not by his decision alone. The Nevada Constitution prohibits a personal income tax, and changing that requires voter approval. Ford’s team has also said he will not raise taxes.

Should I wait until after Ford takes office to buy or sell?
There’s no election-related reason to wait. The Legislature doesn’t convene until February 1, 2027, and any new law would come later. Base your timing on your own plans, supply and financing.

Did the election change short-term rental rules in Incline Village?
No. Washoe County sets those rules, and Incline Village’s commission seat wasn’t on the ballot. Ford’s housing page doesn’t address short-term rentals. HOA rules may apply separately.

How many Incline Village homes are for sale?
There were 114 homes, condos and townhomes for sale on October 14, 2026, or about 4.5 months of supply. See current Incline Village homes for sale.

Who is the top Incline Village real estate agent?
Cole Mizak of Compass ranked #1 in Incline Village by closed transactions from January 1 to September 30, 2026, with 30 closed deals, according to the IVR MLS ranking report. Cole also ranked #1 by individual sales volume in 2025.

Talk to an Incline Village real estate agent before you decide

Headlines can make a market feel more uncertain than it is. A good decision comes down to one property, your timeline and current numbers. As your Incline Village REALTOR®, I can show you what today’s market means for your plans, with no pressure and no election forecasts.

• Buying? Search Incline Village homes for sale.
• Selling? Get your home’s value.
• Prefer to talk? Call or text (775) 225-2549, or email [email protected].

Cole Mizak | Founder, Mizak Mountain Luxury Team at Compass | Incline Village, NV
NV RED S.0179606 | CA DRE 02126888

Market data: Incline Village REALTORS® MLS, sales through October 14, 2026. Figures exclude off-MLS sales and known partial-ownership sales. This article is general information, not tax, legal or financial advice. Proposed laws may change or never pass.

Sources

• Washoe County: unofficial 2026 general election results
• The Nevada Independent: 2026 election live updates
• The Nevada Independent: 10 takeaways from Nevada’s 2026 midterms
• The Nevada Independent: legislative results
• The Nevada Independent: where the governor candidates stand
• The Nevada Independent: raising taxes in Nevada
• Ford for Nevada: housing plan
• CBS News: 2026 midterm results
• CalMatters: Props. 40, 41 and 42
• EdSource: Prop. 3 and Prop. 40 results
• California Legislative Analyst’s Office: Prop. 3
• Ballotpedia: Article 10, Nevada Constitution
• Nevada Current: AJR1 property tax proposal
• Nevada Current: bills that died in 2025
• News 4: Nevada property tax reform
• Washoe County: 2026 election timeline
• Washoe County: elected offices
• Incline Together: IVGID trustee forum
• Nevada Division of State Lands: NTRPA fact sheet
• The Mortgage Reports: Freddie Mac weekly rates
• U.S. News: mortgage rates, Nov. 3, 2026
• CNBC: Treasury yields, Nov. 3, 2026
• NAR: capital gains reform for home sales